How luck plays an important role in the stock market (GME and others)
Fellow retards, I noticed that this sub is going to hit 2 million people soon, and I have decided to put aside my project assignments to write this DD (albeit more towards psychologically) on why luck is extremely important in the stock market, and what you can do to potentially get in favor of luck. Before I start, I want to congratulate you on being here. You have came a long way in life, and there’s more to come. Be happy. TLDR at the last paragraph. I want to talk mainly 3 things; luck, the psychology behind investing and what you should do to maximize profits. Luck In the book 'The Drunkard's Walk', under chapter of 'Illusions of Patterns and Patterns of Illusion', and I quote: "In 1978, Koppett revealed a system that he claimed could determine, by the end of January every year, whether the stock market would go up or down in that calendar year. His system had correctly predicted the market, he said, for the past eleven years. Of course, stock-picking systems are easy to identify in hindsight; the true test is whether they will work in the future. Koppett's system passed that test too: judging the market by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it worked for eleven straight years, from 1979 through 1989, got it wrong in 1990, and was correct again every year until 1998. But although Koppett's predictions were correct for a streak of eighteen out of nineteen years, I feel confident in asserting that his streak involved no skill whatsoever. Why? Because Leonard Koppett was a columnist for Sporting News, and his system was based on the results of the Super Bowl, the championship game of professional football. Whenever the team from the (original) National Football league won, the stock market, he predicted, would rise." In the book 'Fooled by Randomness', the Prologue mentioned "...luck disguised and perceived as nonluck (that is, skills) and, more generally, randomness disguised and perceived as non-randomness (that is, determinism). " In the book ‘The Black Swan’ by Taleb Nassim Nicholas, Page 119 mentioned " A successful person will try to convince you that his achievements could not possibly be accidental, just as a gambler who wins at roulette seven times in a row will explain to you that the odds against such a streak are one in several million, so you either have to believe some transcendental intervention is in play or accept his skills and insight in picking the winning numbers." More often than not, luck is rarely on your side. I can provide many other articles, but I believe you get the point. To emphasize it, "the habit of mistaking luck for skill is most prevalent - and most conspicuous - and that is the world of markets." So why am I saying all these? What I am trying to imply is, do appreciate your GME gains, or whatever astronomical gains that you have. These gains, more often than not, are results of extremely lucky happenstances, where most people are incapable of harnessing them. Yes, there are tons of good DDs. But you yourselves are incredibly lucky to be part of WSB, and personally reading the DDs yourselves, and lucky enough to decide that you would be retarded enough to take the risk. You should be happy and grateful about it, because like I said, this is hugely, and heavily dependent on luck. Humans are flawed, because we have the tendency to look for specific causes that lead to effects. We often find it hard to accept that an event can be the result of total randomness, but sometimes it is. In financial forecasting, several times random volatility is mistaken for accurate prediction. In a group of many analysts, it is normal to expect that someone's predictions will turn out to be true (u/DeepFuckingValue). So, in case you get way too ahead of yourselves thinking you are absolutely a genius for having triple percentage gains in your portfolio, remember you're most likely just lucky. And since you're lucky, be appreciative and do not be complacent. Psychology behind Investing Several studies have fooled people into believing they are in control of something they actually have no control over. In fact, human decision-making shows systematic simplifications and deviations from the tenets of rationality (‘heuristics’) that may lead to suboptimal decisional outcomes (‘cognitive biases’). There are currently three prevailing theoretical perspectives on the origin of heuristics and cognitive biases: a cognitive-psychological, an ecological and an evolutionary perspective. To simplify that, it basically means that cognitive biases arise from intrinsic brain mechanisms that are fundamental for the working of our neural networks. Your mind is always on the cautious side of things, because it is trying to protect you. Remember a time when you were very near the edge of a building/cliff, and all of a sudden you feel hypersensitive to the surrounding around you? You are aware of every rocks and stones that might sabotage you. Another example can be that you shiver when peeing, because your body is exaggerating the signal that you are rapidly losing body heat, and is trying to shiver up the muscle fiber to keep you warm, etc. You get the idea. This unfortunately, applies in investing as well. Your mind will inevitably forces you to be on the safer side. A dip? Oh no... you panic. But relax, that is normal. In my last point, I will explain what you can do to overcome it. What you can do to stay calm? So now you know that it is in human nature to be a paper handed bitch. The first step is realizing that your own neural networks are playing a huge part in giving you a paper hand. When you realized that it is your own mind that is keeping you on the safer side, perhaps you can be more self-aware. Being impatient in the market is the worst mistake that you would commit while investing in the stocks. You have to know that if you do not have good patience in the market then you would find difficulty in getting the right stocks for your investment. You have to finally take your own decisions when you wish to select the stocks. Remember however, you do have to be lucky to hit the jackpot on certain investments as per my first point. Confirmation bias is also a bitch. As philosopher Francis Bacon put it in 1620, "the human understanding, once it has adopted an opinion, collects any instances that confirm it, and though the contrary instances may be more numerous and more weighty, it either does not notice them or else rejects them, in order that this opinion will remain unshaken." This happens very often in WSB, and I want you to be cautious as well. To show you how easy confirmation bias is, imagine I have 5 numbers here. After presenting you these numbers, I want you to guess what is the rule of the game. Here are the 5 numbers: 4 6 8 10 12. What will your next 3 numbers be? What is the rule of the game? The rule is: Increasing Numbers, the next 3 numbers can be 13 14 15 Most of you might have guessed "increasing even numbers and provided with 14 16 18, when in fact it is not. Luck does not solely come from deciding whether to listen to another retard's DD on a thread, and YOLO-ing your life savings onto some stocks. It also comes in the form of your birth status, etc. Having a $100,000 head start in the stock market, is almost always better than someone having $1000 as a starting capital (or worse still, negative capital simply because your parents are poor, that's unlucky). That being said, I believe all of us here are in some way privileged to be gathered here and discussing individually. The poor kids in some countries have to fight for clean water and food. So the next time you realized that you are earning money in the stock market, remember, it is incredibly hard to do it, and you should be proud of yourselves. And in the scenario where you lose your money, well, you shouldn't be surprised either way. You are bound to be losing. Here are some books you can refer to if you're interested: The Drunkard’s Walk by Leonard Mlodinow (How Randomness Rules Our Lives), Fooled by Randomness by Taleb N, The Black Swan by Taleb N, Who’s in Charge? by Michael S. Gazzaniga (on Free will and the science of the brain), Success and Luck by Robert H. Frank, The Most Good You Can Do (How effective altruism is changing ideas about living ethically) by Peter Singer. Clarification: Some people mentioned if this post was directed to "diminish the contributions of skill and the hard effort of anyone". Absolutely not. This post is assuming that in the top few % (if you're reading this, yourself included), everyone is just as talented. But to be part of that 1% in that 1%, to be the richest among the richest, you have to be incredibly lucky. TLDR: If you make huge gains, go and give some of it to other people that may not have been so lucky. Go and give it to the homeless people at the unemployment line, who ain't so lucky as you. Maybe buy him food. Get him clothes. Donate to your local charities. Most importantly, give it back to your parents, because your parents are the one who, most likely, set you up in this direction, and you are lucky enough to be here today. If you did not make any gains, remember, it is perfectly okay. Shorter TLDR: Be happy, be grateful. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Game Matchups Preview Playoffs Round #2: Bills vs. Ravens
Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 18th iteration of this analysis for the Bills upcoming home game against the Ravens. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage). NOTE: If you have followed this series all season long be prepared, these playoff posts are very long and highly detailed. If this is your first time reading, I hope you enjoy and can find the time to finish the whole thing. Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Ravens’ Passing Defense After yet another great performance throwing the ball the Buffalo Bills are proving that they can beat anyone and everyone through the air. In their past 4 games the Bills have played the #11 (DEN), #18 (NWE), #6 (MIA), and #8 (IND) pass defenses, according to Football Outsiders Pass Defense DVOA, and have gone 108/153 (70.6%) for 1415 yards and a 12:2 TD:INT Ratio (Josh Allen’s stats here). Making the Bills recent run of success more impressive is that they have been successful against starkly different schemes, with tangible evidence the past two weeks. The Dolphins, who predominately run man coverage, were shredded for 388 passing yards, 124 of which came while targeting First Team All-Pro CB Xavien Howard. The Bills followed up this performance with Josh Allen picking apart the Colt’s Zone First Scheme for a Playoff leading passer rating of 121.6 (His regular season Passer Rating was 107.2). All of this leads to the following conclusion, with the way the Bills are playing right now there does not seem to be any specific scheme, team, or player that is capable of stopping the Bills’ passing attack. Against the Ravens the Bills will need to find a way to beat Press Man Coverage. With one of the most physically gifted set of DBs in the NFL, headlined by Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey, the Ravens are particularly adept at this scheme. Their top two corners have both earned All-Pro honors at least once in their career primarily due to their physicality, but it is their ball skills which put them over the top. In 164 combined games Peters and Humphrey have 42 INTs, 20 FF, 11 FR, and 9 Defensive TDs. With the growing expectation that the Bills will primarily run 10 personnel (1RB, 4WR) the Ravens will likely spend the majority of Saturday in their Nickel package meaning that Jimmy Smith will join the previously mentioned CBs on the field. This sets up likely man matchups of Peters on Diggs, Smith on Brown, Humphrey in the Slot covering Beasley, and one of the two safeties (Chuck Clark, DeShon Elliott) on Gabe Davis. In this alignment the Ravens would be forced to choose between blitzing the safety not covering Davis or having that player shade deep over the top to Diggs side of the field. At the end of the day this will be a game of 1-on-1 matchups with the winner determined by which side can consistently beat the other. The Ravens’ Press Man is able to excel because of their skill in the secondary but where it becomes one of the most dangerous schemes in the NFL is their proficiency and consistency in rushing the passer. For the 3rd straight season the Ravens lead the NFL in Blitz %, this year blitzing 44.1% of the time (Dolphins are 2nd at 40.6%). This facilitated an environment where the Ravens were able to pressure opposing QBs on 24.0% of their drop backs (NFL-11) and sack those QBs 39 times (NFL-14). The Press Man and Pass Rush work in concert by reducing the ability for offenses to complete quick short passes which then allows the pass rush more time to disrupt the QB. The Ravens will send anywhere from 5-8 players at the QB with the players primarily running up field being Patrick Queen (MLB) and Matt Judon (OLB) but when forced into Nickel concepts the Ravens will not hesitate to send either safety. All of this allowed the 2019 Ravens to put constant pressure on Josh Allen during their game last season ultimately resulting in 5 sacks for a loss (6 total) with 4 of them occurring with 5+ blitzers (#1, #2, #3, #4). It is however important to note that the Buffalo Bills offense from 2019 looks absolutely nothing like they do in 2020, in fact it is remarkable how drastically different they truly look. This matchup comes down to the Bills receivers being able to beat whichever DB is lined up in front of them. If the Bills can accomplish this, then it will allow Allen to get rid of the ball before the Ravens pass rush is able to get to him. If the reverse were to occur it will create an environment where multiple blindside forced fumbles and/or interceptions may occur which would be incredibly difficult for the Bills to recover from. While on paper this matchup may be extremely close the reality is that the Bills simply have to many weapons that excel at beating man coverage for the Ravens to consistently stop. Stefon Diggs is widely regarded as one of the best receivers against man coverage in the entire NFL while the quickness of Cole Beasley provides for the ability to continuously beat man coverage in the intermediate range. Couple this with the Ravens struggles in covering TEs and RBs while still considering that the Ravens will need to find a way to contend with Gabe Davis and John Brown and the Bills, surprisingly, have a massive advantage here. EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Ravens’ Rushing Defense With Zack Moss going down with a season ending injury Wildcard weekend most Bills’ fans have spent this week wondering who RB2 will be behind Devin Singletary. Up until Thursday afternoon it was very clearly a three-horse race between T.J. Yeldon, Antonio Williams, and Devonta Freeman but via a statement from Sean McDermott we now know the winner of that race. T.J. Yeldon will suit up on Saturday night and be the RB2 behind Devin Singletary. McDermott also did make it very clear that this did not preclude the Bills from activating Antonio Williams for the Ravens game. Regardless of if it is one or two backs behind Singletary we can say with a fair degree of certainty that he will be the Bellcow back moving forward for Buffalo, meaning you can expect him to see north of 75% of the offensive snaps. One concern with that is in games where Singletary has exceeded 60% of offensive snaps (6) in 2020 he has a Y/A of 3.6 and in all other games he has a Y/A of 5.1. Let me make this abundantly clear, and see all of my previous posts for proof, I believe that the majority of the issues running the ball in 2020 are due to the blocking up front and not the RBs carrying the ball however, this stark contrast in Y/A should be a concern moving forward for a Bills’ team who at times will need to show they can move the ball on the ground if they want to continue winning football games. This section now lends itself to a breakdown of the backups to Singletary on Saturday, one we know, and one is a maybe. With that in mind we start with T.J. Yeldon who has demonstrated the ability to be a competent runner of the football throughout his career with an acceptable 4.1 Y/A. Yeldon possesses exceptional agility for a player that is 6’1” 225lb and at times in his career has been one of the more dangerous receiving options in the NFL coming out of the backfield. The main knock Bills’ fans have on Yeldon is his fumbling where he has lost the ball 7 times on 677 career touches (1 per 97), for context Singletary has 5 on 374 (1 per 75). Next to discuss is the new darling of Bills Mafia, undrafted rookie Antonio Williams. One of the bigger unknowns on the Bills’ roster, Williams busted onto the scene against Miami with 83 all-purpose yards on 13 touches for 2 TDs in just one half. Out of UNC the 5’11” 215lb RB, who looks and plays much bigger, possesses exceptional lateral quickness and does not shy away from contact making him a dangerous player once he gets to the second level. Also, while it is highly improbable, we see him Saturday, I would be remised to not mention the signing of 2-time Pro Bowler Devonta Freeman who just a few years back was considered one of the best RBs in the game. Freeman suffered a groin injury in 2018 which required surgery which has since deprived him of some of the quickness that made him one of the biggest home run threats in the league. Still, Freeman provides a veteran presence with gas left in the tank, at just 28, he could be an integral part of the Bills’ Playoff push. All these players may play a factor if the Bills continue to advance in the playoffs, but Bills Mafia should fully expect T.J. Yeldon to do so on Saturday night. If and when the Bills do run the ball, they will be doing so against a team which ranks 26th in the NFL (The Bills rank 24th) in Y/A against at 4.6. The Ravens also rank 27th in both 20+ A (1 per 32) and 40+ A (1 per 127) which is indicative of their blitz dependent defense. When the Ravens defense aligns with the proper gap they typically bring the ball carrier down in the backfield as the team has combined for 71 TFLs but when they miss ball carriers tend to pick up chunk yardage leaving their secondary to clean up free runners. This of course assumes the ball carrier can bypass the Ravens’ 3-4 alignment which is championed by one of the deeper DLs in all of football. On the right side is, long time Broncos DE, Derek Wolfe who typically lines up somewhere from the B to C gap and is one of the better run stuffers at the position. In the middle is the behemoth known as Brandon Williams who specializes as a NT, a dying position in the NFL that Williams still excels at. Lastly left of Williams is Calais Campbell who while listed as a DE plays more like a DT because of the blitz packages which the Ravens use. Campbell may be 34 and towards the end of his career but this exceptionally physical and athletic lineman will threaten Bills LG Ike Boettger all night. The last group of players to cover for the Ravens is one of the most athletically gifted groups in the entire NFL, the Ravens LBs. Strength, Speed, Quickness, you name it, the 6 primary LBs on this team have it all. They are headlined by 21-year-old MLB Patrick Queen who ran a blazing 4.5 at the rookie combine in 2020. About as promising as they come Queen lead the Ravens in Tackles and TFLs and will challenge Josh Allen on any QB Draws the Bills may attempt. Next to him is either Pass Rush specialist Matt Judon or Pass Coverage specialist Tyus Bowser. Judon earned his second straight Pro Bowl selection because of his propensity to pressure the QB with his 4th straight season of 6+ sacks from the OLB position. Bowser, not nearly the pass rusher Judon is, instead has 3 INTs this season and an astounding 42.2 passer rating against (On just 15 targets). There are other players of note like ILB L.J. Fort, long time vet Pernell McPhee, or even the highly sought after Yannick Ngakoue but all you really need to know is that regardless of pass or run this unit has the ability to get into the backfield or chase down players that get outside of it. EDGE: Ravens 👏 👏 Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Ravens’ Passing Offense Against the Colts the Bills’ struggled at times against the pass with the most damage coming from the Colts’ TEs and the 6’4” rookie WR Michael Pittman. In isolation Phillip Rivers 300+ pass yard day implies that the secondary struggled covering their responsibilities, in reality the issue lay elsewhere. Rivers finished the 2020 season with a Time-to-Throw of just 2.52s (NFL-6) which he continued into the playoffs making it difficult for the Bills to get any pressure on the Indy QB. In fact, it was so difficult that the Bills had only 1 QB hit the entire game. This is the same team that in their last 6 games, post their Bye Week, was averaging 5.5 QB Hits per game. With the Bills running the Palms Scheme they are highly dependent on either pressure or extended Time-to-Throw in order to get into their secondary transitions, neither of those happened on Saturday which is why the Colts were so successful through the air. Against the Ravens the Bills should be able to get more players in the vicinity of Lamar Jackson than they did Rivers. Of the 41 players with more than 128 pass attempts in 2020 Lamar ranked 38th in Time-To-Throw holding onto the ball for an average of 2.98 seconds. This was a primary reason that Lamar was sacked 29 times (NFL-13) and fumbled the ball 10 times. Obviously, the challenge here is that while teams can occasionally get pressure on Lamar, and even bring him down, the counter of his rushing ability poses a bigger threat (More on that in the rushing section). Credit is still due to Lamar and his OL who lost 2019 All-Pro LT Ronnie Stanley to an ankle injury just 6 games into the season and had to flip their RT, Orlando Brown Jr., over to LT and plug and play from there. While the main threat of Lamar is undoubtedly his legs, he did finish 2020 with 2757 passing yards, 26 Passing TDs, and just 9 INTs by utilizing his receiving weapons to the best of their abilities. At receiver the Ravens don’t have one imposing weapon, but they do have a slew of good options. First and foremost of these options is 2019 1st round draft pick Marquise “Hollywood” Brown who some tried to drop the “Bust” tag on in the middle of the season after he had a 4-game stretch where he caught just 6 balls for 55 yards and 1 TD. In opposition to that ideal try taking those 4 games out of the season and then pacing it to 16 games, when doing that Browns’ season would be 65 catches for 892 yards and 9 TDs, a solid season for any NFL player. He also answered the bell Wildcard weekend raking in 7 catches for 109 yards against a stout Tennessee secondary. Outside of him the only other receivers of note are Willie Snead, a vet who built his name in New Orleans and is a solid option at WR, Devin Duvernay, a lightning quick 2020 3rd round draft pick, and Miles Boykin, their big bodied WR who has a knack for bodying opposing defenders. But by far their most dangerous weapon in the passing game is not a WR but instead their TE, one of the best in the league, Mark Andrews. Andrews is a walking Tonka Truck that is built the same way as Dawson Knox with better hands and a more complete set of receiving skills. This is Lamar’s check down option which is a primary reason he shared the team lead in receptions (58) and finished second in receiving yards (701) meaning he should be the Bills’ biggest concern in the air on Saturday night. For the Bills to dominate this battle they will need to get pressure on Lamar while simultaneously maintaining contain to avoid him escaping the pocket. Assuming they can accomplish this, which is a tall order, they will need to avoid letting all 3 of the Ravens primary receivers beat them deep and put a big body, say Tremaine Edmunds, on Mark Andrews. RBs have yet to prove a consistent threat for the Ravens through the air in 2020 accounting for just 15.8% of targets and 18.3% of catches but are something to monitor Saturday night as the Bills try to contain Lamar while putting a spy in the middle to avoid a big run. Buffalo must win this matchup, and should, if they have any chance of winning this game. A takeaway or two through the air wouldn’t hurt either. EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Ravens’ Rushing Offense The Bills had no answers against the Colts run game Wildcard weekend giving up the most rushing yards they have since the Cardinals game on November 15, 2020. Most of Buffalo’s success came when the Colts most powerful back, Jonathan Taylor, was running the ball holding him to just 3.7 Y/A but they had issues with the quicker players. Nyheim Hines only rushed the ball 6 times but accounted for 75 yards on carries of 4, 1, 29, 3, 33, and 5. This stat line should worry a Bills’ fan base that is hoping the Bills can beat a team stacked with shifty players and advance to their first AFC Championship Game since 1993. The Ravens offense is built off an option scheme the likes of which the NFL has never seen. This offense can execute everything and anything on the ground and it all starts with QB Lamar Jackson. On option plays the QB will generally key off one defender and read which “option” said player chooses to defend. An example, a designed handoff to the right side of the line except all linemen wash down to the left and leave the defensive end unblocked. When this occurs it forces the defensive end to choose between scraping down to the RB taking the supposed handoff or to maintain contain on the QB (See example here). Lamar Jackson is an expert at reading such defenders and even in the rare event where he keeps the ball when he should hand it off, he has the athleticism to beat the defender to the edge. When handing the ball off he primarily will be handing it to Gus Edwards or J.K. Dobbins. Gus the Bus is bigger than Melvin Gordon but plays with the speed of Alvin Kamara which has allowed him to maintain a Y/A of 5.0+ in each of his first 3 seasons. J.K. Dobbins is the smaller, faster, and quicker of the two which makes for a good change of pace from Edwards. This three headed monster has created for the Ravens one of the best rushing attacks in NFL history which continues to defy the mantra that the NFL is just a passing league. The second part of the Ravens that make them so deadly running the football is their offensive line. At the two guard spots are Bradley Bozeman (LG) and Ben Powers (RG) who each possess incredible strength which allows them control defenders at the time of the snap. Neither is exceptionally gifted at pulling or blocking in the open field but their strength couples nicely with the athleticism of the Ravens backfield. Between them is Center Patrick Mekari who took the starting Job from Matt Skura midway through the season after snapping issues forced him to the bench. Mekari is a big bruiser like his guards Bozeman and Powers which gives the Ravens just south of half a ton of Man in the middle of their line. At RT is veteran D.J. Fluker who was chosen 11th overall by the San Diego Chargers in 2013. Fluker now on his 4th team in 8 seasons is a competent RT crushing the scales at nearly 350lb but is dealing with a nagging knee injury which is something to monitor. Last is LT Orlando Brown who was laughed at for only putting up 14 on the bench press at his combine three years ago and has quieted the doubters by being named to his 2nd straight Pro Bowl. In all this is an above average OL built perfectly for a Lamar Jackson lead offense. Buffalo will need to slow down the Ravens run game if they have any chance of winning on Saturday and this may be an odd thing to read, but the Bills defense actually lends itself to do just that. There has been discussion all week on Reddit, Twitter, and everywhere else of who will play the spy for the Bills against the Ravens and while they assuredly will occasionally spy, with Edmunds, Milano, or Poyer, the Bills’ Palms Scheme is actually proficient at slowing down mobile QBs. In this scheme the Bills will have multiple defenders zoned in the middle of the field, effectively playing a coverage spy on Lamar while also holding an advantage on the outside via their tradeoff concepts. In the event Lamar does break outside the pocket the Bills defense allows the boundary guarding CB to step forward to Lamar while the safety over the top takes the receiver. This is how the Bills defense is built and while an incredibly difficult scheme to run it is one the Bills have mastered. Don’t take this description of the Bills’ defense to say they will nullify Lamar Jackson but realize that the Bills have the tools to somewhat contain him, that is assuming they play a perfect game. EDGE: Ravens 👏 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Special Teams vs. Ravens’ Special Teams Throughout 2020 the Bills’ average starting field position was their own 30.7-yard line (NFL-6). Against the Colts their average starting field position was their own 15.4-yard line. The Bills would obviously go on to win this game, but field position has proved to be an indicator of success in 2020 as each team finishing within the Top-8 made the playoffs. This leads to a defense of one of the Bills most polarizing players, Andre Roberts, who has been integral to the Bills’ success in this measure and the insinuation that he was a major contributing factor in the Bills’ field position issues Wildcard weekend is not backed up by any tangible evidence. In the first half of the Colts’ game the Bills’ average starting field position was the 7.8-yard line primarily because of an exceptional Colts’ ST unit and the bend, don’t break, style of the Bills’ defense. How did each of the Colts’ first 6 drives end? Punt downed at the Bills’ 3, Magical kickoff dies on the Bills’ 15, Punt fair catch at the Bills’ 11, Kickoff returned by Roberts’ to the 12 with a 6 yard penalty bringing it back to the Bills’ 6, Colt’s Turnover on Downs at the Bills’ 4, Colts kneel before halftime. For the Bills’ this game was an aberration, and one I have confidence they will clean up against the Ravens, mainly because I have confidence in Andre Roberts. Outside of the return game the Special Teams group for Buffalo continues to be one of the best in the NFL. Corey Bojorquez rightfully received a vote to the All-Pro team, and it could be argued he deserved more. Bojo punted 4 times Wildcard Weekend averaging 47.0 Y/P with a Net Y/P of 43.5. These numbers would have been significantly higher had he not purposely drilled in I20 punt which only required a 29-yard kick. At kicker is another player who arguably deserved some All-Pro consideration, rookie Tyler Bass. This kid has been on complete fire the past 10 weeks going 42/43 on XPs and 18/19 on FGs with his only miss coming from 61 yards out. I was personally skeptical on Bass coming into the season, but my goodness, this kid is a stud. There is one more player on the Bills’ Special Teams that got an All-Pro vote, Tyler Matakevich. A guru at the position the man nicknamed “Dirty Red” is around the ball carrier on every kick and tossing people around on every return. Bills’ fans know more than most that Special Teams players can have a huge impact on a team and the Bills’ have a ton of great ones. The Ravens also have one of the better Special Teams units in the NFL. For most of the season Devin Duvernay handled KR while James Proche took care of PR however, in recent weeks Duvernay has taken control of both. Averaging 11.5 Y/PR and 27.5 Y/KR, with a 93-yard return for a TD, Duvernay is a dynamic rookie with open field speed that few can match. Just like the Colts game this will likely effect the Bills’ short kick strategy meaning a lot of touchbacks when the Bills kick off. Punting for the Ravens is the 38-year old veteran Sam Koch who the Ravens have under contract until he is 40. Koch had his lowest Y/P (44.5) in a decade but finished 8th in the NFL with a Net Y/P of 42.8, a difference of just 1.7. Koch rarely allows players to return the ball and when they do, they are averaging just 4.8 Y/R. Last is the best to ever do it, Kicker Justin Tucker. Tucker has a 90.7 FG% in the regular season throughout his career with a career long of 61. As automatic as they come if you see Tucker on the field there is basically no tradition Bills’ fans can do that would make him miss. EDGE: Bills 👏 Why We Will Lose The Ravens have steadily improved the entire season and are peaking at the perfect time. Improving their odds of advancing is that the Ravens’ strengths matchup well against the Bills’ weaknesses. On defense the Ravens excel against the pass and have been able to put pressure on every QB they have played in 2020. That pressure should be extra concerning for a Bills’ team that has seen their star QB struggle at holding onto the football, now realize that the Ravens had a combined 25 forced fumbles in the regular season and start panicking. In reality the Ravens only weakness on defense is against the run which is something that they shouldn’t particularly care about when playing a Bills team who has struggled running the ball and should find a more difficult go of things after losing their RB2. On offense the Ravens continue to be one of the best running teams in history. Whether it be Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, or Lamar Jackson doesn’t matter because whoever has the ball will be able to effectively move it on the ground. This means consistent yardage with the occasional big run sprinkled in. That continuous success ultimately will keep the ball out of the hands of Buffalo’s offense while putting up points for Baltimore which is a typical strategy against a Bills team that has struggled against the run in 2020. Making matters worse is the Bills’ can’t just bail out to stop the run because if they did attempt this Lamar Jackson, the 2019 MVP, has shown the ability to make big plays through the air and will do so against this Bills’ team. The Ravens offense is built to beat a team like Buffalo, as is their defense, which is a recipe for a Baltimore victory. Why We Will Win The 2019 Bills lost to the Ravens 24-17. The 2020 Bills are a significantly improved version of that team with an MVP caliber QB. The Bills offense had no answer for the Ravens pressure last season which is a primary reason they went out and got a receiver that could specifically help with handling that scheme. That receiver is your first team All-Pro WR, Stefon Diggs, who has dominated every single player that has tried to guard him this season. You factor him in with Buffalo’s other 3 options at the position and the Bills suddenly have the ability to put up points against a Ravens’ defense that is one of the best in the NFL. On defense the Bills may not have had the same success in 2020 that they did in 2019 but they have continually improved all season long. This game comes down to the Bills’ ability to contain Lamar Jackson and a healthy Matt Milano makes that slightly easier. Dark horse candidate to have big game is A.J. Epenesa who the Bills coaching staff has surely coached up to not do to much and instead do his 1/11th. And that is just what every single Bills’ player must do, their 1/11th, do that and you won’t stop Lamar Jackson, but you can reduce the damage he inflicts. If Buffalo accomplishes that your Bills will be heading to their first AFC Championship game in nearly 30 years. Prediction:Bills 27 – Ravens 24 This is going to be a close game whichever way you slice it. On paper the Ravens seem to have the matchups but in reality, the Bills seem to have the ability to win them. Because this will be so close this game likely comes down to which team makes fewer mistakes, inclusive of turnovers. With the way the Bills are playing right now you must trust Josh Allen more than Lamar Jackson to hold onto the ball. At the end of the night though this will be a battle of heavyweights with the last one standing being one game away from Super Bowl Sunday.
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1. https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%) NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar. https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866 NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis !!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should. In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase. Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below: https://www.playboy.com/ https://www.playboytv.com/ https://www.playboyplus.com/ https://www.iplayboy.com/ Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success. “Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.” https://www.scientificgames.com/ https://www.microgaming.co.uk/ “This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.” https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/ As per their SEC filing: “Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.” https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1 They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon. https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again: https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea “Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.” “According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently: https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress. Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait. https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/ Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05 Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing: “For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.” “In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.” “In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.” “In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.” They are profitable across all three of their current business segments. “Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.” https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world. "Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.” Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame: “As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn. The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :( He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :) Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw. I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003 Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this: “Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy. “Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.” https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative. https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html Y’all like that China money? “Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.” Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.” https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose. I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing “Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.” “Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.” Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong. Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will. Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way. Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains. TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here: WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf Or here: https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.” STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon. Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.
Ignorance of Agriculture will ultimately contribute to collapse. (debate prep)
My apologies, this is a long post, TL;DR is at the end Disclaimer: I am not a scientist. This is a later draft which I have shortened and to an extent, dumbed down to be understood by a wider audience, motivated by my comment on thedebate thread. The statements included have been researched thoroughly and there are links to data on which I provide my own analysis (some links are generic wiki pages but I cannot seem to link 30 odd years of learned experience and university level material very easily). My writing is based from over 15 years of working in the UK agricultural sector with time also spent working in New Zealand. I have also studied Geography, Geology and Biology at college, Agriculture + Land Management at foundation degree level and hold a degree in Architecture – I very much welcome discussion over the topics raised and for comments to provide alternative viewpoints, conclusions and sources but I do not wish for people to just tell me that ‘you’re wrong’. What this post describes, personally causes much concern that I feel others should learn to understand before forming their own opinion - UK agriculture is often unfairly judged through ignorance and misinformation. It is focused around a UK/Europe perspective and history but I’m sure there is evidence to suggest similar trends globally. When trying to predict a future, it is wise to analyse the past and in this instance, to know an origin story, that of Society. From a geological point of view, the beginning of human society happened yesterday, roughly 10,000 years ago. It is important to use this time scale because this is of a similar scale that we assess previous climate changes and extinction events. Appropriately, it is of a time scale that The Long Now project views humanity if we are to survive the next 10,000 years as a species. Society arose from the fields and herds of our invention, Agriculture. Settling as communities and tribes to plant seed and tend to domesticated animals slowly created a surplus of food. This crucially meant, for example, out of a group of 50 adults, only 40 would need to farm, leaving the remaining 10 to learn, innovate, rule, and relax – the notion of Progress. For millennia this trend continued as agricultural processes benefited from the new ideas and tools that the non-farmers provided. Right through to the medieval and renaissance periods, a vast majority of the population worked in the food supply system; not all were farmers but butchers and bakers, blacksmiths, and cart manufacturers etc. Society was still focused around the growing seasons and it is no coincidence that northern hemisphere religions practice Lent around early spring, the time when food stocks from the previous years harvest were running low. It was a method of control to discourage selfish behavior and instead share remaining food stocks proportionately within a community. Farming methods at this time were relatively sustainable and ‘eco-friendly’, using organically grown crops and animals that formed part of a natural Carbon cycle and Nitrogen cycle. This concept soon changed, firstly with the age of discovery but more importantly, with the following Industrial Revolution. This was an acceleration of the same process as before; food surplus became so great that many more people were free to innovate, invent and discover – creating a positive feedback loop. The issue was however that this explosion of Progress was directly a result of fossil fuels. First coal and coke which perfected methods of steel production before being used as a source of power to transport goods, power factories and machinery, thus enabling great increases in Efficiency. Later, oil became more important to further increase power efficiencies but also to produce vast quantities of synthetic fertilizer and chemical pesticides. Our modern day society is built on the efficiencies and the stored energy that fossil fuels provided. The apple air pods, the tiktok, the football stadiums and the long-haul flights are all possible because of the exploits of oil to provide enough surplus food. Only a tiny fraction of our society now produce the food that the rest of us consume. In particularly the work of Fritz Haber and his work of creating a synthetic fertiliser in 1918 as clearly shown in this graph – UK yields of arable crops from 1200 to modern day. (measured by tonne/hectare – how much stuff is harvested over about 1.5 soccer pitches) This causes me concern for three reasons: 1) Look at the graph again and zoom in to the past 20 years. Yields have become stagnant, growth has ceased. I have witnessed this firsthand. We have reached a ceiling of productivity we can no longer push any higher much like assuming a 100m Olympic sprinter will one day set a record of under 4 seconds, it is just not physically possible. There is not going to be any more increase in food surplus to take advantage of under the current system of extracting fossil fuels. 2) The increase in yield has been directly provided by the very thing which causes us environmental harm – oil. If we are to give up fossil fuels, then we must accept a huge drop in agricultural output. My estimation is not to a scale before the industrial revolution as we have since learnt more about drainage, crop rotation and breeding for instance but I would comfortably assume average yields could halve within a generation if we were to give up ‘oil’. 3) The graph shows an average yield – meaning some areas may still be increasing production but areas that were breaking records are now falling, thus bringing the average down. I explain this by many farms reaching an efficiency limit through financial constraints in a capitalist market and land usage but more importantly, climate change is already altering our agriculture through floods, droughts, pests, and diseases. Stuff that our ancestors would worship a god to try and prevent. 2012 was a bad harvest I remember, 2019 was also too wet that crops didn’t get sown in time for 2020. I believe this trend is important for the average person to grasp. Our society has been so far removed from food production that most people are ignorant of its power. Agriculture is THE bottom rung of societies ladder, it is our foundation stone and if it were to fail or indeed just wobble, we all fall. This group shares many posts about political and civil unrest that would spark a collapse and although it has done in the past such as the fall of Rome, this is equivalent to a tree losing its top branches which cause damage as they fall. The tree still stands, and like the Dark Ages of Europe, time allows it to regrow and flourish. To use the same analogy, Agriculture is the trunk of the tree and climate is the ground in which it stands; if these are significantly destroyed or damaged then the entire tree falls and there is no regrowth because it is dead. The next 10,000 years look bleak if we fail to transition away from fossil fuel exploitation over the next century. TD;DR the very thing that society is supported by, agriculture, is currently balancing on a tightrope and there is a hurricane forecast to hit real soon.
After the build-up to Tuesday night's match against Portsmouth the match itself was more than a little underwhelnming for us - a lot of possession, but the same failings that have been evident for the last month or two, namely a porous defence, ultimately made the difference. Still Jayden Stockley grabbed his first goal. Arguably we now have the best forward line in League One with three goal scorers with some physicality to their play and Washington contributing a bit of fox-in-the-box, while loanee Liam Millar and new signing Diallang Jaiyesimi bring width, pace and a goal scoring threat. Reflecting further on the transfer window we shipped out four players who signed for us last autumn, normally you'd want to give a player, even a loanee, a full season, but we got rid of four of them. That illustrates how we were forced to scrap around and take punts on players but also that we can and have to be a bit ruthless from here on. Tuesday night also saw us fall to eighth in the division and while it's not over yet we need to start proving that we have ambitions to make the play-offs - and that is with results. We enter a run of games against mid and lower league level teams and our record to date has been uninspiring against teams that scrap hard but have few of our resources. The first of these games is Rochdale. The 4-4 match at the Valley is still fresh in the memory and summed up both teams strengths and weaknesses. Rochdale don't seem to be doing things by halves, they are free scoring with 40 league goals to date but have a somewhat relaxed approach to defending, having conceded 48 times this season. The odds on a low scoring game are likely to be lengthy. Diallang Jaiyesimi, who's name is easier to ponounce than spell, is likely to feature at some point but Ryan Inniss is some way off, while Bow wants to give Akin Famewo a run-out in the U23s before re-introducing him to first team football. Conor Washington is also expected to be missing but isn't too far away from returning. Intriguingly Bow has mentioned that he wants to make one of our six loanees a full-time Addick, if Famewo is absent from the match day squad tomorrow then we can play Smith, Maatsen, Stockley, Shinnie and Millar but soon a hard choice will have to be made about which of these five plus Famewo is left out. At least the matter is in hand. Player to watch - is ex-Crystal Palace ballboy and Kinetic Academy graduate Kwadwo Baah. He scored twice against us and those goals and electric bursts of pace helped him earn a contract with Manchester City, however that doesn't kick in until July, so he's staying put until then at Rochdale. I mention the Kinetic Academy, based in South Norwood, as they have a number of pro-footballers including Josh Maja, now at Fulham, and Joe Aribo amongst their alumni. They are clearly good at identifying and bringing on talented young players who have fallen through the cracks elsewhere. Maybe we should be investigating some kind of tie-in with this organisation? Rochdale factoid: the modern co-operative movment can trace its links back to the Rochdale Equitable Pioners Society formed in 1844. Today over one billion people are either members of or use co-operative societies. All of you who used the Royal Arsenal Co-operative shop in Powis Street were following in the path of the REPS. Predictions?
For the original post see here. For club 1 (Wigan) see here. Something rather strange Although I'll visit all the continents on my managerial travels, I thought it best to build a bit more street cred in Europe before gallivanting to the far corners of the world. Inspired by Wigan's Norwegian starlet Thelo Aasgard I loaded up all the Scandinavian leagues to go along with those already loaded from the British Isles. I was interviewed by Rangers who felt I wasn’t ambitious enough. Cheeky applications to the vacant Chelsea and Southampton jobs were dismissed. I turned down opportunities at Watford and Middlesbrough as I couldn’t be dealing with another 40+ game league slog right now. Despite some interest in my services from the Swedish second league, I was eventually approached by Norwegian Premiership strugglers Odds BK. Scandinavian adventure? A short league season? A chance to sink my teeth into another relegation scrap? I was sold. As the Norwegian season runs from February to December, I actually took over the reigns at Odd halfway through their league campaign. Despite a media prediction of 7th, the team had only won two matches from the sixteen played and found themselves languishing in 14th place (There's automatic relegation for 15th & 16th place and a relegation playoff for 14th place in the sixteen team Norwegian Premier League). Woeful Odd form before I took over, even dumped out of the Cup by 3rd division Varn. The mandate was the same again - avoid relegation. To sweeten the deal, I was informed that relegation would lead to my firing too. Game on! Season 1- Survival I took over a team perishingly low on morale. Indeed, the players seemed to resent me because of my relative inexperience. The press too had their knives out, needling me at every opportunity. Despite the lack of self-belief there was actually a good footballing balance to the squad. A decent batch of solid first team players, a few old heads, some exciting youngsters and reasonable strength in depth. If anything my predecessor had a bit of an AMRL/ST fetish and we were overstocked in these. In any case there was no potential for transfers, so I would have to work with what I had. With only 14 games remaining, I needed to get the team performing quickly too. Suspecting that the squad had the quality to perform at a higher level, I chose a much more ambitious tactic than my stern and stocky 4-1-4-1. Much more a true 4-3-3, I hoped to win by stifling opponents of possession and taking the game to them, rather than hoping to nick the odd goal here and there. My first game in charge was a humdinger, as we beat relegation rivals Mjøndalen 3-2 at home. In fact we won 5 of our first 7 league fixtures, dragging ourselves up to 13th with victories over fellow relegation battlers Start and Stabæk. A 1-0 loss to eventual Champions Molde was encouraging, as was a 4-0 drubbing of (admittedly 10 man) Vålerenga away from home. My team's form after I took over at Odd We stumbled a bit with back-to-back losses, but overall won our last four games to secure not only survival but an 8th placed finish! I was pretty chuffed at nearly achieving the pre-season prediction despite having less than half of the season to work with. Although I told the board and players we would seek to emulate the performance by finishing mid-table next season, I secretly thought we could secure European football by finishing in the top 4. There was a bit of a nervy moment as the club's chairman stepped down and a new one elected, but fortunately the newcomer saw sense and kept me in the job for the next season. Awards (Season 1) Player of the season (and also winner of the Kazuyoshi Miura award for geriatric footballers) - 35yrs old and with about as much pace as an asthmatic ant, the club captain was someone I feared would be a total liability in defence. Barely starting ahead of his equally old, equally slow competition, the guy turned out to be a revelation. As consistent as the sun coming up and even scored a goal or two. Hats off to Steven Hagen! Young player of the season - tough competition for both awards in a Norwegian team packed with plenty of promising young talent. The standout player, however, was a 19yr old central midfielder. One of the first names on the team sheet, he provided excellent link play, assists, the occasional goal and barely put a foot wrong. Congratulations Filip Ronningen-Jorgensen! The Gareth Bale award for players who'd rather be anywhere other than at work - trained like a four year old. Played like a three year old. Threw his toys out of the pram when I suggested he buck up his ideas. Apparently 'promising' but seemed to only promise more inconsistency and underperformance. Stay on the golf course Marius Bustgaard Larsen. Season 2 -Redemption With Premier League survival assured, I turned my hand to sprucing up the club. Not that there was much elbow grease required, but I could sense something special from Odd in my full season in charge if I put in a bit of effort. The board held fairly minimal long term ambitions for the club. The Team The first XI was actually relatively settled, but to push on from last season we would need better competition in some areas. The defence was very solid indeed - goalkeeper Sondre Rossbach had nearly 200 first team appearances and was only 25. Veteran former Norway international Steven Hagen and Odin "Allfather" Bjordtuft were first choice centre backs. A solid midfield triumvirate of Ronningen-Jorgensen, Jacob Kitolano and Vjeborn Hoff was a fluid, chance creating machine. Harry Kane-esque striker Tobias Lauritsen spearheaded a front three that included two of the club's three non-Norwegian players; Nigerian winger Kachi and Kosovan international Elba Rashdani. Vice captain and sterling centre back Youth prospects were aplenty throughout the team. Most promising were two highly promising full backs in Hallgeir Solberg and Dennis "I choose you, Gengar" Gjengaar, playmaker Syver Aas (who was pushing the existing midfielders for a starting berth) and teenage striker Sadir Abud, who was also nearing senior squad readiness. Star midfielder and only 19! The Staff I overhauled the backroom staff to create coaching, scouting and medical systems that were the best in the league. On the coaching front, former internationals James Beattie (England, attack coach), Brad Friedel (USA, GK coach) and Kit Symons (Wales, defence coach) were all recruited. Mercurial striker Johan Elmander joined the scouting team, although I chose not to replace retiring Director of Football Tore Andersen. Overall the changes didn't cost me much in either contract terminations or compensation, though there was fairly decent outlay on intensive Norwegian language lessons! The Transfers There was no need for drastic action in the transfer department, despite the board gifting me a £3m budget (take note Wigan board cheapskates). The focus was on a bit of depth for key areas and shifting some of the excess AM(L)/ST's I had on the books. I settled for bringing in versatile Swedish midfielder Elias Andersson and back-up right back Leo Cornic, as well as converting loanee winger Runar Hauge to a permanent signing. All three joined on free transfer, as did a handful of future prospects. In January I brought in American centre back Erik Palmer-Brown as both a replacement for the outgoing Semb Berge and successor to OAP Steven Hagen. Tantrum child Marius Bustgaard Larsen (£8.5k) was sold for less than his value, as was similarly argumentative B-team right back Eirik Asanti Gayi (£9.5k). Wantaway wingers Vergard Erlien (£83k) and Filip Brattbakk (£100k) also departed. Veteran centre back Fredrik Semb Berge asked to leave in the mid-season window and I obliged; he joined Danish side Aab for £175k. Total fees from loans came to £7.5k. Net transfers: +£380k The Results Pre-season was a fairly non-descript affair, spent either trouncing minnows or engaging in some entertaining matches against top flight teams from Belgian and Austrian. Our early season form was promising and left us in a strong position for a European berth, though we were struggling away from home. https://preview.redd.it/yufk8uhuqpc61.png?width=1403&format=png&auto=webp&s=d9e12e302b4e8307eecea52513fd751803a8283a Discounting the cup matches against lower league teams, we had only managed to beat strugglers Start and Viking away. A dour goalless draw at relegation candidates Stabæk was followed by a last gasp penalty in a 1-1 draw at newly promoted Haugesund. We let a 3 goal lead slip in our 3-3 draw at Bodø/Glimt and suffered our first league defeat away at reigning champions Molde. After that, however, the team went super saiyan. We won 14 straight games in a row, including progressing to a Norwegian cup semi-final. I felt we could romp home to the league title, although reigning Champion's Molde were always within a game or two of catching us. Our 14 game win steak. It was no coincidence that a wobble in form coincided with a season-ending Achille's tear to star winger Mashuga Bakenga. It was followed by further woe, this time a broken leg ending star striker Tobias Lauritsen's season. We limped across the finishing line We lost to Bodø/Glimt and required last minute goals to beat Lillestrøm and Brann. Despite losing a humdinger against title rivals Molde, we were still ahead at the top of the table. Another loss to bogey team Molde dumped us out of the cup, while further losses mean we went into the final game against already relegated Ranheim needing to equal Molde's result to win the league. A dour 2-1 victory, combined with Molde's draw, saw us win the Norwegian Premier League! Awards (Season 2) Player of the season - an extremely difficult choice in a team that shone from back to front. Should it be Sondre Rossbach, whose performances earned him a first Norway cap? Centre back Odin Bjortuft, who played every minute of every league game? Assist machine Mathias Rasmussen? Any of the starring midfield trio? Tobias Lauritsen's incredible goal haul of 23 goals in 25 starts? In the end I've decided to give the award to Mashunga Bakenga, whose 14 goals from 15 matches propelled us to eventual league victory. Young player of the season - despite 3 or 4 youngsters seeing a fair amount of game time in the season, only one was consistent in performance. Ably deputising on either flank, congratulations to full back Hallgier Solberg. The Jean-Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting award for players with long names - say it ten times really fast if you dare; well done Filip Ronningen-Jorgensen! Stats
Teams - 2 (Wigan Athletic, Odds BK)
Trophies - 1 (Norwegian Premier League 2022)
Awards - 2 (Manager of the month x 2)
Net transfer spend - +£405k
Having resigned from my post at Odds, we'll see where I go next on my Locked in Journeyman save.
[Game Preview] Week 13 - Philadelphia Eagles(3-7-1) @ Green Bay Packers (8-3)
Philadelphia Eagles (3-7-1) vs Green Bay Packers (8-3)
The Eagles were finally kicked off their roost atop shit mountain, aka the NFC East, last week when they fell to the Seattle Seahawks in a game where the defense showed up for the most part holding the high powered Seattle offense in check outside DK Metcalf who reminded the Eagles, they made a mistake selecting JJAW over him in the 2019 NFL draft. This week the Eagles look to continue their quest for a top 10 pick as they take on the Green Bay Packers who are 8-3 are 2nd in the NFC behind the Saints. Aaron Rodgers and Devante Adams feasted on the Eagles in the first half of last season's game before Jim Schwartz made a rare halftime adjustment and gave his corners help over top. Let’s see if Schwartz learned from last year and gives them help from the first whistle or it takes Adams getting over 100 yards in the first half again. On the offensive side of the ball it is reported Pederson will hand over some play-calling responsibility to QB coach Press Taylor who since taking over as QB coach has seen an MVP candidate into one of the worst QBs in the NFL. Who knows though maybe Press will bring some life to the offense and we will see the high flying offense we were promised coming into the season. Regardless something has to change to get this offense back to where it was 3 years ago, but that is probably not going to happen during the season and will require more than just another voice calling the plays.
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (44th season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.
Location
Station
Frequency
Philadelphia, PA
WIP-FM
94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA
WCTO-FM
96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey
WENJ-FM
97.3 FM
Levittown, PA
WBCB-AM
1490 AM
Northumberland, PA
WEGH-FM
107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA
WPPA-AM
1360 AM
Reading, PA
WEEU-AM
830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WAFL-FM
97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA
WEJL-FM
96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WAFL-FM
97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WEJL-AM
630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WBAX-AM
1240 AM
Williamsport, PA
WBZD-FM
93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE
WDEL-FM/AM
101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA
WSOX-FM
96.1 FM
Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo and Bill Kulik will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.
Location
Station
Frequency
Philadelphia, PA
LA MEGA
105.7 FM
Allentown, PA
WSAN
1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ
WIBG
1020 AM; 101.3 FM
Packers Radio Network
Packers Radio Network Wayne Larrivee and Larry McCarren enter their 22nd season of broadcasts together across the Packers Radio Network in 2020. They surpassed Jim Irwin and Max McGee for the most regular-season and postseason games broadcast for the Packers with 313 at the 2018 season opener against Chicago. WTMJ, which has been broadcasting the team’s games since November 1929, continues its long-standing role as the flagship station of the Packers Radio Network.
National Radio
Compass Radio will carry the game nationally with Gregg Daniels (play-by-play) and Chad Brown(analyst).
October 29th, 1933 at City Stadium, Green Bay, WI. Philadelphia Eagles 9 – Green Bay Packers 35
Points Leader
The Green Bay Packers lead the Philadelphia Eagles (936-774)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 1-1 against the Packers
Matt LaFleur: 0-1 against the Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs Matt LeFleur: Pederson leads 1-0
Quarterback Record
Carson Wentz: Against Packers: 1-1
Aaron Rodgers: Against Eagles: 4-2
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Carson Wentz vs Aaron Rodgers:Series tied 1-1
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Eagles lead Packers 4-3
Record @ Lambeau Field: Packers lead 11-6
Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 27 - Packers No. 4
2020 Record
Eagles: 3-8-1
Packers 8-3
Last Meeting
Thursday , September 26th, 2019
Eagles 34 - Packers 27
The Eagles struggled out of the gate again as they failed to put points on the board in the first quarter as they fell behind the Packers 10-0 to start the game with the Rodgers-Adams connection coming out of the gate hot. The Eagles answered in the second quarter scoring 3 TDs to take a 21-20 lead into the half. After some defensive adjustments the Eagles were able to slow down the Packers passing game in the second half and continued to pound the rock with Howard and Sanders as the Eagles had 176 yards on the ground. Howard also contributed in the passing game scoring on a 20 pass from Carson Wentz in the second quarter and Howard added another score on the ground to start the 4th quarter. Despite losing Adams to a foot injury, Rodgers led the Packers down to the goal line, but the Eagles defense held as the Packers pulled a Pete Carroll and attempted to throw from the 3 which resulted in a Nigel Bradham INT to seal the game for the Eagles.
Eagles HC Doug Pederson played 8 seasons with the Packers as backup to HoF QB Brett Farve in two stints from 1995-1998 and 2001-2004.
Eagles LB coach Ken Fajole was the Defensive quality control coach for the Packers in 1998.
Eagles safeties coach Tim Hauck played 4 seasons with the Packers from 1991-1994.
Eagles assistant TE coach Mike Bartrum played 1 season for the Packers in 1995.
Eagles LS Rick Lovato (not husband to Demi as claimed by Tony Romo) played one season for the Green Bay Packers in 2015.
Packers CB Chandon Sullivan played one season for the Eagles in 2018.
Eagles WR Travis Fulgham was with the Packers this offseason until he was cut August 19th and picked up by the Eagles.
Packers rookie guard Jon Runyan Jr. is the son of former Eagles Jon Runyan who played 9 seasons for the Eagles from 2000-2008.
Packers DT Trayvon Hester played 1 season for the Eagles in 2018 and was on the Eagles roster prior to the start of the season earlier this year.
Packers NT Anthony Rush played 1 season for the Eagles in 2019.
2020 Pro Bowlers
Eagles
Packers
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter)
QB Aaron Rodgers
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter)
WR Devante Adams (2nd Alt)
TE Zach Ertz
OT David Bakhtiari (Starter)
C Jason Kelce (Starter)
DT Kenny Clark (1st Alt)
LS Rick Lavato (Starter)
OLB Za'Darius Smith (1st Alt)
General
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Including playoffs, Philadelphia has won 7 of the last 12 games in the all-time series vs. Green Bay. The Eagles, winners of 2 of their last 3 road games against the Packers, last faced Green Bay in Week 4 of 2019 at Lambeau Field (W, 34-27).
Since 2017, Philadelphia has produced an 11-4 record in the month of December. The Eagles’ .733 winning percentage in December games in that span ranks 3rd in the NFL, trailing only Baltimore (.800, 12-3) and Kansas City (.800, 12-3).
Brandon Graham will be playing in his 155th career game, which ties Trent Cole (2005-14) for the most games played by any defensive lineman in franchise history. Graham leads the Eagles in both sacks (7.0) and TFLs (12) this season.
Jason Kelce has started 100 consecutive regular-season games, which is the longest active streak among NFL centers as well as the longest by any Eagles center since the 1970 merger.
Miles Sanders ranks 2nd among NFL RBs in rushing average (5.6), behind Nick Chubb (6.3) (min. 100 attempts)
Draft Picks
Eagles
Packers
WR Jalen Raegor
QB Jordan Love
QB Jalen Hurts
RB AJ Dillion
LB Davion Taylor
TE Josiah Deguara
S K’Von Wallace
LB Kamal Martin
OT Jack Driscoll
G Jon Runyan Jr.
WR John Hightower
C Jake Hanson
LB Shaun Bradley
G Simon Stepanick
WR Quez Watkins
FS Vernon Scott
OT Prince Tega Wanogho
DE Jonathan Garvin
LB/DE Casey Toohill
Notable Off-season Additions
Eagles
Packers
S Will Parks
OT Rick Wagner
DT Javon Hargrave
ILB Christian Kirksey
CB Nickell Robey-Coleman
WR Devin Funchess
CB Darius Slay
DE Gerald Willis
WR Malik Turner
DE Treyvon Hester
CB Parry Nickerson
NT Anthony Rush
WR Tavon Austin
Notable Off-season Departures
Eagles
Packers
S Malcom Jenkins
TE Jimmy Graham
CB Ronald Darby
WR Travis Fulgham
RB Jordan Howard
T Bryan Bulaga
WR Nelson Agholor
ILB Blake Martinex
OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai
CB Tramon Williams
LB Kamu Grugler-Hill
WR Geromino Allison
RB Darren Sproles
OLB Kyler Fackrell
DT Timmy Jernigan
ILB BJ Goodson
LB Nigel Bradham
FS Ibraheim Campbell
OT Jason Spriggs
FB Danny Vitale
Milestones
Eagles QB Carson Wentz (109) needs 1 passing TDs to take sole possession of 4th on the Eagles all-time passing yards list moving ahead of QB Norm Snead.
Eagles DT Fletcher Cox (52.5) needs 2 sacks to move up to 5th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DE Hugh Douglas
Eagles DE Vinny Curry (29) needs 1 sacks to move up to 18th on the Eagles all-time sack list passing DT Jerome Brown
Interesting Facts to Know
Poop
The 1930’s was an incredibly memorable decade for the United States for quite a few reasons. Everyone’s familiar with The Great Depression, The New Deal, the initiation of World War II, the War of the Worlds scare, the repeal of Prohibition (no small matter), the Dust Bowl, and others yet. But I would argue there were two other major developments in Green Bay and Philadelphia, specifically, in this time period that shaped the state of affairs in the United States in major ways. For the 20th century decades preceding the 1930s, Green Bay had already been producing toilet paper. In fact, it was the production and success of toilet paper manufacturing that helped Green Bay avoid the worst effects of The Great Depression (source). This went a long way to removing GB from its former french moniker “The Bay of Stinkards”. Toilet paper, yay! Yet there was a problem. As you know, paper comes from trees...and this early toilet paper was not exactly splinter-free. Surely you see the issue. I do wonder how many ass splinters were treated by healthcare folks and brave housewives (in this backward time). It wasn’t until 1935 that a Green Bay company invented and began mass-producing splinter-free toilet paper. Green Bay, I salute you for saving our asses. As you will see in just a short breath, this was impressive, pre-emptive forethought. Around the same time, halfway across the United States, Philadelphia was also hit hard by The Great Depression and President Hoover’s ineptitude. By 1933, only 40% of Philadelphians were employed full-time. The Birthplace of American Democracy was suffering...until some unknown specific date that decade when Pat and Harry Olivieri had a simple, yet bright idea. The namesake for Pat’s King of Steaks decided, one day, that rather than making yet another hot dog at their South Philly hotdog stand, he would try putting beef on the griddle...and thus was born the Philly Cheesesteak. I’m certain I don’t have to spell out the correlation between these two developments. Oh, poop, I already did.
Matchups to Watch
Eagles Defense vs. Aaron Rodgers
Last week, the Eagles defense showed up as best they could to limit the points allowed against a dangerous Seattle passing attack. It wasn’t pretty, but it never would be given the defensive deficiencies and the great offense they were facing. It’s hard to completely fault them for their hand in last week’s loss. The challenge this week isn’t any easier as the team travels to Green Bay to face another MVP candidate in Aaron Rodgers. This Green Bay offense is creative and very difficult to defend without Rodgers, but he makes the challenge even more difficult this week. It wouldn’t be surprising to see this defense get completely ripped apart which makes this matchup the key for this week’s game. The Eagles offense is unable to do anything well so if the Eagles want to have a chance in this game the defense needs to find a way to limit the bleeding. The Packers don’t have the deepest group of receivers but they are led by stud receiver Davante Adams. If Darius Slay plays, he’ll likely see the most of Adams, since he is the only capable corner on the roster at the moment. Slay is fresh off one of his worst games in his career after DK Metcalf rode him up and down the field last week. Easy to feel bad for Slay since DK is just a physical freak show, but we need out number 1 corner to show up and perform a little better than that. MVS, Adam Lazard, and Aaron Jones can all be lethal options in the passing game. This is an offense that uses a lot of motion misdirection, something the Eagles struggle mightily with. When you add Aaron Rodgers on top of that, you have a potential recipe for disaster. I’m not trying to say the defense is the biggest problem here, but if the Packers run up the score, the Eagles don’t have a shot at all. If last year is any indication, this is a likely possibility.
Eagles Pass Rush vs. Packers Offensive Line
This ties into the first matchup in that the Eagles win when they win up front. It’s how they are built and it’s the only position group on the defense that is consistently good enough. They have a more difficult matchup on Sunday than they did a week ago and it’ll be paramount for them to control the LOS. This is already a difficult task when you look at the Packers OL and Rodgers adds onto that, but if the Eagles want to win this game they’ll need to force some negative plays from the Packers. The defensive line needs to create enough pressure to force Rodgers into more high leverage throws. This doesn’t mean the defense will find success if they do this, its Aaron Rodgers after all, but they need to help create opportunities for themselves in this contest. The Eagles defense only has 3 interceptions on the year, none of which are by their cornerbacks. If they want to change that, the defensive line needs to force some offensive mistakes. Good luck with that, Rodgers doesn’t turn the ball over much at all.
Eagles Offensive Line vs Packers Defensive Front
There isn’t much to write about on the offensive side of the ball for the Eagles. They are a sad, pathetic, an unexciting unit led by a bottom 3 QB in the NFL this year. They can’t get anything going and everything is bad. The Packers have a good pass rush, led by Za’Darius Smith. They also have Kenny Clark and Preston Smith. This is a creative pass rush that is capable of wrecking games. As we saw in last year’s matchup, this isn’t a unit that is good in run defense. I think part of that is coaching but the fact remains this unit is very soft against the run. Running is about the only thing the Eagles offense can do decently well. I am not one to commit to running the ball all game long, but it’s a strategy the Eagles should use and copy from last year’s game plan. The Eagles will be starting their 10th different OL combination in 11 games which makes the task of controlling the line of scrimmage even more difficult. Assuming the Eagles can create rushing lanes, they should explore using the 2019 game plan against the Packers again and hope Wentz can find some semblance of competency. Yeah, I know, that’s a stretch. This is really the only good offensive matchup for the Eagles on Sunday. Even in a hypothetical with Wentz playing better, this Packers secondary can be difficult to move the ball on. Jaire Alexander is having an All Pro caliber season.
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS First and foremost, these are my opinions and there are many opinions out there. You should seek them all out. This is a nuanced hobby and there is much to learn. Don't sweat it though. These are football cards, it's not that serious. If you have a question, reply and I'll get back to you. What you should know before we start a conversation about football cards
The more things change, the more things stay the same. Football cards are still kind of a waste of money. They weren't a good bet 30 years ago, they aren't now. Collect because you enjoy the hobby, because you enjoy the sport & its players. If you just like the thrill of the chase that comes from opening packs, hey, it's a free country, have a blast. However, people do get addicted to ripping packs. Be careful! Try to pace yourself. Try to have a budget. Be aware that prices are at an all-time high yet resale values continue to plummet as the rookie shine wears off. Take for example a guy like Eddie Lacy. A few years ago, he was on top of the sport after a monster start to his career. Now? His cards aren't worth jack. For every Tom Brady rookie card, there are a billion cards from forgotten bums who take up space in our closets.
Panini is the dominant brand. They also own Donruss & Score. Topps & Upper Deck are (basically) out of the NFL card market. Panini has the NFL license so they are the only card company who can use logos and team names. Every other brand is second-class. But hey, if that's cool with you, enjoy what those other brands have to offer. You do get more autos and better bang for your buck but for an inferior, less desirable, poor resale product.
What to buy/collect? There are no good answers here. Generally, I'd recommend purchasing the cheapest panini/donruss/score pack/box you can find just to get your feet wet and set expectations. If you want to get more specific, I recommend going on ebay and browsing what catches your eye. Like the Steelers? Look up 2021 steelers and filter by the football cards category. Like Russell Wilson? Look up his rookie cards, look up his autos. Ultimately, you should collect what you enjoy. I collect Virginia Tech players in their college uniform. Everybody has their thing so try to find that. What's a good investment? Not everyone will agree with me. However, I don't believe you should collect to invest or to make money. A good value would be to not spend your money on football cards. Again, this is a hobby. You don't want your retirement tied to the success of Justin Herbert's career. If price is a concern in any way, you shouldn't be spending your hard-earned dollars on football cards. I've been in the hobby for many years now and to be perfectly blunt, there are a lot of broke dummies who spend every extra dollar and then some on this hobby. I think it's a joke. It's not impossible to make money buying/selling cards, it's just exceedingly unlikely and impractical. I sell cards on ebay because I buy them for pennies on the dollar from people second-hand. That's the safest and smartest way to do it if you really want to try. Please feel free to contact me if you have questions about selling. Cards are like buying new cars. Once you drive off the lot (or open the pack of cards) the resale value automatically drops. Again, almost all cards lose significant value over time. Look up any all-time great player and look how much their rookie cards are going for. Excluding Tom Brady, just about every superstar Hall of Fame player from before the 90s is cheap (compared to prices for today's players). As for finding bang for your buck, you are always best off buying second-hand. But you also need to be hypervigilant to check prices elsewhere to ensure you're paying a fair price. Prices on cards, packs, boxes and cases adjust all the time and the big card sellers online all have ebay accounts with millions of listings and they see how prices move and what sells. You can try to predict how the market will move, but good luck! Finally, big sellers/dealers buy their product direct from Panini at a wholesale dealer discount. They buy it for less and can sell it for less and still make money. If you think you can make money over the long-term buying cards at full price, then reselling them, you are mistaken. Finding your card's value Besides paying for a Beckett subscription, you can also go to ebay to search for completed sales for your card. Search the card (year, brand, set, player) then you can filter results based on sales. If that specific card isn't there, you can also check for similar cards. Say you have a 2018 Russell Wilson auto, look up his autos from that year or from that set to get a close estimate. Or if you have a card #ed to 50, check for other #ed to 50 cards of that player from other sets in that year. That's your best estimate. However, keep in mind some products are obviously worth more. a #/10 Score card will generally not be worth as much as a #/10 Panini national treasures card of the same player. Help IDing a card Beckett has basically card to ever exist on its platform. If you can't find it, I can assure you it's there. Try googling every word/yeaphrase/name on the card/item before asking me. You can also search on ebay or COMC or sportlots, which are a few of the many card selling platforms, and their search results include pics (usually) so it's easier to find what you're looking for. Where to buy? Local card stores for packs/boxes/cases. For singles, ebay will likely have the best deals and your best options. Keep in mind this hobby is growing so demand is high on new product. These are not endorsements or sponsors but I recommend shopping at dacardworld.com, blowoutcards.com, or steelcitycollectibles.com. There are a handful of other bigger card shops but these are the big 3 as far as I know. They sell hobby products (I'll clarify what this means below). And of course, if feasible for you, you can also shop at your local card store (they also sell hobby products). To find the nearest store, google "local card store" or "sports card stores near me"... In my opinion, you should NEVER spend money at Walmart or Target and ALWAYS buy from local card stores. What is a break? How do I join? Who are the best breakers? First and foremost, I am of the opinion that breaking is gambling. Therefore, I think it's just plain dumb so I have nothing positive to say about it. What is a break? A break is when you "buy into" a split portion of a box/case of cards by team (sometimes by division or conference or even by sport, it all depends on the product.) So a breaker buys the box/case of cards, opens them live on video stream so you can watch the results. Then if say you bought the Kansas City Chiefs portion, all the Chiefs cards are yours. The point of this is that you can buy into a product at a fraction of the cost. Sometimes it goes in your favor and you get a bunch of hits. Sometimes you get little to nothing. Each breaker has their own rules on how to give out multi-player cards, whether they mail out base cards or not, how much they price it, how they pack/mail your cards, how they stream it. There are generally accepted practices but it's up to you to do your due diligence and read the rules for each breaker. Ultimately, even if you don't view it as gambling, I feel with breaks that you are only paying more for less since you have to pay a middle man (the breaker). In fact, four people get paid before you see your cards (Panini, wherever they bought the cards from, the breaker and the post office.) Why keep adding middle men to the process of buying cards? I don't get it, but breaks are hugely popular. Whatever floats your boat! What is a razz? If you don't think breaking is gambling, I've got another one for you. RAZZING. A razz is something like a raffle or lottery. Say I have a card that I think it worth $100. I can "razz" it, which means the razzer breaks up the card into "lines" or spots or chances to win that card. So like I said, let's say a card is worth $100, I can razz 10 spots for $10 per spot. So 10 people buy into the razz at $10 each, the razzer collects $100, then there will be a lottery for the card. So then, the razzer will assign a number to each entry, plug those numbers into a random number generator and it'll spit out a random number that indicates who won. Of course, there's some mild strategy involved. The tricky thing is you can buy multiple spots. So someone could buy 5 of the 10 spots. Or you could buy just 1 and hope to get lucky. That's the fun I suppose. To buy a $100 card for $10. Usually the razzer will collect all the money first, then run the razz. So there is a fair amount of trust necessary here. First, you have to send out the money to the razzer and to trust the results of the razz are fair. You also have to know your cards well because a razzer can easily try to razz a card for double what it's worth if his audience is large enough and eager enough to participate. It's can be a free for all. Hobby vs. Retail In order to prop up local card stores and keep driving business to them, there are hobby and retail products. Hobby products (packs/boxes/cases) generally have the best cards and highest value cards and best odds for autographs/hits per box when compared to retail products. Retail products are the boxes/packs you will find at stores like Walmart and Target. The reason for the two separate types of products is because of economics. Walmart has hundreds of stores and their whole business model is based on bulk buying. They can buy a million boxes and their bulk purchasing allows them to undercut the prices of the average mom and pop shop. Your local card store can't buy the same amount of product as Walmart/Target or sell the same amount so their prices have to be higher. In the end, all you need to know is that hobby products are the better bang for your buck. Retail products have worse autos from more random, low-level rookies. You can still get lucky and hit a top rookie auto in retail, it's not impossible. The odds are just less in your favor. Card supplies/storage? These are not endorsements/sponsors. BCW, Cardboard Gold, Ultra Pro. I would avoid buying any of these products through a store (walmart, target etc. Even a card store) when you can typically buy direct from them. At least if you're buying in bulk. A pack or two of top loaders or plastic sleeves will generally cost the same wherever you shop. Grading Should you get it graded? Meh. If you're going to sell for max value, yes. If you want to really protect the card long term and preserve its value in case you want to sell it later, yes. If these things don't matter to you, then no. If you're going to keep the card and its value doesn't really matter to you, no. You shouldn't. Grading is not cheap, especially if you're only grading a card or two. So if you're happy to just stick it in a toploader and keep it forever, don't grade. If you think your grandkids will want to sell it 50 years from now, sure, why not, get it graded. Generally speaking PSA is best for older cards. BGS is best for newer cards. Base, insert, parallel, refractor, prizm? I found this glossary of sports cards terms on Upper Deck's site that I think does a good job of explaining things. If you have a question, please reply.
Free Tips are given here every day from all over the betting world, but mostly football and basketball tips are given. They are free and have been selected by partners who are experts in their field. The Free Tips for Today are selected after a lot of study, statistics and a lot of experience that our experts have. The Free Tips for Today are divided into some subcategories depending on the ... Free Football Predictions Website. Victorspredict provides you with a wide range of accurate predictions you can rely on. VictorsPredict is an online service that provides free football tips and predictions for football fans around the world, free analysis, latest results, league tables and many more. Free Football Tips and Predictions. Welcome to PredictZ! PredictZ provides free football tips and predictions, free analysis, football form and statistics, the latest results and league tables and much more. Get free football betting tips and football predictions for the top European leagues. Find the best bookies and the best odds for daily bets. Bet on the world's best football league! Check out our English Premier League guide here. Your Ultimate Online Betting Hub in 2021 . Generic selectors. Exact matches only. Exact matches only . Search in title. Search in title . Search in content. Search ... Browse these free soccer predictions for today and the weekend. Football match previews include statistics, betting odds markets & the latest bookie offers.To find a specific league such as Premier League predictions, use the "All Leagues" menu button which shows all competitions where tips are currently available. The odds are subject to change and are correct at the time of publishing: Tuesday, February 9, 2021 15:41 GMT. ODDSLOT Football Tips. FREE SOCCER PREDICTIONS AND DAILY FOOTBALL BETTING TIPS FROM OUR EXPERT TIPSTERS. Contact Us [email protected]. Facebook; Twitter; Google+; Latest Match Previews . Betting tips for AC Milan vs Udinese - 02.04.2019 Tuesday, 02 April 2019. Betting tips for ... Bet tips Football predictions 365bet. League Home team Predicted score Away team Tip; Austria --> Bundesliga: Salzburg To offer football expert predictions, there is a lot to consider. Our best tipsters assess a range of criteria when researching a game, taking into account odds value in particular. Check out our free football predictions for today. To view all of our tips for today's games, go to predictions today. football predictions for today and for future ... Free mathematical football predictions and tips for today matches. 1X2, Under/Over 2.5 goals, HT/FT tips. Soccer live score, results, best odds. Accurate Football Predictions All free bet prediction in our supertips page, you can find the over and under bets for all bookmakers, especially bet365. Also in out soccer prediction site you can find all best football tips for today and for tomorrow. We offer also a correct score prediction which from there you can check if the tips are over or under certain goal.
Free 100 Odds Draw Football Predictions Today - YouTube
Free Football Predictions 30th January 2021. Welcome to today's free football predictions, safe 108 odds, trusted for high stake.If you are yet to subscribe ... Free tips daily. Daily there will be free tips available upto 5+ odds . Subscribe to our channel. Like and share the video. To join our telegram channel clic... I want to welcome you to today's free football predictions, 53 safe odds, with over 90% win rate.Our football predictions are top quality, trusted for high s... Support our effort to get the 10,000 subscribers. simply subscribe to football predictions and lab.Here we analyze each football team, based on their recent ... Free 100 Odds Draw Football Predictions TodayFootball tips on today's and this weekend's matches. With over 100 tipsters contributing to some matches, the ... Free 24 Odds For Today Football Predictions Betting Tips Football Betting Tips Today Football tips on today's and this weekend's matches. With over 100 t...
